Exit Planning Podcast October 2022
Posted on October 20th, 2022
Scott Bushkie sat down with friend and peer, John Brown from Business Enterprise Institute (BEI) to talk about exit planning!
Scott Bushkie sat down with friend and peer, John Brown from Business Enterprise Institute (BEI) to talk about exit planning!
The M&A world isn’t quite sure what to expect in the next recession. Private equity players weren’t nearly as dominant through the last market downturns. But today those firms have $1.8 trillion in uncommitted capital they need to put to work. With money to spend, and a timeline to do it, private equity may help keep valuations high.
Tom West is considered by many to be the founder of modern day business brokerage. A few years ago, he calculated what percent of businesses on the market actually sell. For most small businesses, those with sales of $10 million or less, he figured fewer than 25% actually transition to a new owner. There are a lot of factors driving down success rates, but here are the five I hear about most often:
From 9/11 to the Great Recession to COVID-19 – after every hiccup in the world, buyers want to know how your business stood up against adversity. In 2015, buyers were still asking, “But how’d they do in 2009?” Today, buyers want to know how you’re getting through the global talent shortage.
Right now we’re in a strong seller’s market. Despite the economic uncertainty and turmoil in the world, mergers and acquisitions has not cooled down. It’s economics 101, supply and demand, and there are just more buyers than sellers on the market.
You can practice some back of the napkin math to value a company, but it’s not always reliable. A company with $3 million in EBITDA, may, as a general rule of thumb, sell at a 4x to 6x multiple. In other words, it might sell for $12 million to $18 million in an average market.
When you sell in good economic times, most times your cash flow is growing, so you get more value out of your business. But multiples are also going up, so you get the benefit of rising cash flow plus rising multiples. Unfortunately, the reverse can happen in a down economy.
There’s zero doubt that interest rates are going up this year. The Fed issued a 0.25 percentage point rate hike in March, the first increase we’ve seen since late 2018. But more increases are coming, perhaps even monthly, in the year ahead.
During the Cornerstone annual State of M&A Conference held in Green Bay, we organized our own local “shark tank” event. Four private equity (PE) firms were invited to review and submit an offer on a hypothetical company. One by one, they revealed their offers at the event and talked about how they arrived at that value.
Steven Chiavarone, CFA and economist with Federated Hermes, presented at our annual State of M&A conference held in Green Bay. Chiavarone spoke to the conflict and other economic indicators likely to affect mergers and acquisitions in the years ahead. Specifically, he addressed inflation and the risk of recession.